For the Dollar:
It’s a busy week ahead.
In the 1st half of the week, January retail sales and industrial production figures will be in focus.
Expect retail sales figures to be the key driver.
The focus will then shift to Philly FED Manufacturing PMI numbers and weekly jobless claims figures on Friday.
While we would expect plenty of sensitivity to the jobless claim figures, the PMI numbers will also influence.
At the end of the week, prelim private sector PMI numbers for February wrap things up on Friday. The Services PMI will likely have the greatest impact on the day.
Other stats include wholesale inflation and housing sector data along with NY Empire State Manufacturing figures. These stats should have a muted impact on the markets, however.
On the monetary policy front, the FOMC meeting minutes are also due out on Wednesday. Expect the minutes to influence. The markets will be looking for the Committee to be aligned with Powell’s recent forward guidance.
The Dollar Spot Index ended the week down by 0.62% to 90.480.
For the EUR:
It’s also a busy week ahead on the economic data front.
In the 1st half of the week, economic data for Germany and the Eurozone will be in focus.
2nd estimate GDP numbers for the 4th quarter and ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for February are due out.
Industrial production and trade data for the Eurozone will also draw attention at the start of the week.
On Thursday, finalized January inflation and consumer confidence figures for the Eurozone are due out ahead of a busy Friday.
Prelim private sector PMI numbers for France, Germany, and the Eurozone are due out on Friday.
While Germany’s Manufacturing PMI will have the greatest influence, also expect sensitivity to the rest of the PMIs. Lockdown measures are likely to hurt the services sector further in February. Any impact on the manufacturing sector and expect the EUR to come under pressure.
On the monetary policy front, the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes are due out on Thursday. We can expect plenty of interest. In the last press conference, ECB President stood by the ECB growth forecasts. Lagarde did warn of downside risks, however.
The EUR ended the week up by 0.61% to $1.2120.
For the Pound:
It’s another busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
On Wednesday, January inflation figures are due out ahead of a busy Friday.
At the end of the week, January retail sales and February prelim private sector PMIs will be in focus.
Expect the retail sales and services PMI numbers to have the greatest impact on the Pound.
Other stats include CBI industrial trend orders for February. Barring particularly dire numbers, however, the stats should have a muted impact on the Pound.
The Pound ended the week up by 0.83% to $1.3849.
For the Loonie:
It’s a relatively busy week ahead on the economic calendar.
January inflation figures on Wednesday and December retail sales figures on Friday will influence.
Other stats include manufacturing sales, housing stats, and foreign security purchases. We don’t expect too much influence from the numbers, however.
From elsewhere, expect the PMI numbers from the Eurozone and the U.S to also influence. Week numbers would question the market optimism towards the economic outlook… Any shift in sentiment would weigh on crude oil prices and the Loonie.
The Loonie ended the week up by 0.47% to C$1.2696 against the U.S Dollar.
