I can’t emphasize enough how impressive the six-week rally in oil has been.
Sure, WTI has only ralled to $116 from $102 in that time but the backdrop has been so negative. The US is releasing 1 million barrels per day from the SPR, China is locked down and global growth worries are pervasive.
To rally despite those headwinds is almost unprecedented. It speaks to genuine supply shortages, with 3 million barrels per day potentially missing from Russia.
Technically, WTI crude is now just shy of the late-March high of $116.61. A break of that clears the way for a return to $130. With China on track to re-open, the demand side is now set to strengthen.