U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are up sharply late Wednesday, as frigid Texas temperatures shut production across the largest U.S. crude producing state, with the unusually cold weather expected to hamper output for days or even weeks.
Oil prices have been supported for months by OPEC+ supply curbs, Saudi Arabia’s additional cuts and hopes of a demand rebound due to COVID-19 vaccinations. Historic cold weather since the weekend in Texas, which supplies the bulk of the U.S. crude and is part of the main U.S. refining hub, has propelled prices even higher.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed early Wednesday when buyers took out $60.30. The main trend will change to down on a move through $57.31.
The minor range is $57.31 to $61.31. Its 50% level at $59.31 is new support.
The short-term range is $51.53 to $61.31. Its retracement zone at $56.42 to $55.27 is near-term support.
Short-Term Outlook
The direction of the market into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to $60.08.
A sustained move over $60.08 will indicate the presence of buyers. If taking out $61.31 generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the November 7, 2018 main top at $62.64.
A sustained move under $60.08 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the pivot at $59.31. A failure to hold this level will put crude oil in a position to challenge $57.31.
