- Despite the recent dip in oil prices, the market will tighten up as winter approaches, Energy Aspects’ Amrita Sen said.
- US releases from the SPR are due to stop, demand from China will grow as lockdowns ease, and the EU’s partial ban on Russian oil will take effect.
- Sen still thinks prices could rebound past $120 a barrel by the end of the year.
The oil market has eased up in recent weeks – but supplies will tighten up rapidly as winter approaches, said Energy Aspects director Amrita Sen, warning that prices could still be on track to top $120 a barrel by the end of the year.
Oil prices fell below $90 a barrel in the last week, and Sen told Bloomberg TV that weakness will likely continue in the near term, noting that oil refineries will soon enter maintenance season, which has historically cut demand for crude.
But it doesn’t mean supply woes are over for the energy market. In November, the US is due to stop rreleasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, she said. China is also likely to snap up more oil, as officials are expected to ease up on lockdown restrictions at the 20th National Congress in November, Sen added.
And in December, the EU’s partial ban on Russian oil products is expected to fully go into effect, potentially taking 2.2 million barrels of oil off the market.
“The market is going to tighten up very, very quickly,” Sen said.
Meanwhile, top oil producers are not providing much relief. Last week, OPEC+ agreed to only a minuscule increase in crude production.
Separately, a cap on Russian oil prices is currently being developed by the G7, though analysts have warned Russia could retaliate by slashing output to send prices even higher.
